The power of prudent optimism
A book has just been published that discusses economics based on trust
Have faith despite everything. To believe, in other words, that in the end the night will not triumph over the light. Even in everyday life, in the economy and in social relations. It is a question of optimism. That doesn’t mean not seeing the problems, but looking beyond them to find the best solution. So, the economics of optimism. This is the title of a recently published book by Luciano Canova (a professor of behavioural economics), which discusses economic relationships from an unusual point of view.
“Economia dell’ottimismo. Perché la speranza evita il fallimento delle nazioni” (Economics of optimism. Why hope prevents the failure of nations) is a remarkable exercise in interpreting the cardinal principles of economics, but also of human history and behaviour, from a different perspective than usual. Canova begins by taking the following into consideration: the economics of optimism shows us how a confident vision of tomorrow has been crucial in the history of economic thought, and how it can still be for us and our planet.
The author begins with an observation: looking at the world today, with all its inequalities and crises, it’s hard to argue that there hasn’t been progress, even compared to half a century ago. Some data are indisputable, such as the staggering drop in infant mortality, the steady rise in literacy, the global decline in poverty. Objective data that go hand in hand with a fundamental idea: it is necessary to combat both nostalgic thinking, which leads to the idealisation of the past, and apocalyptic thinking, which paints the future in dark colours. In other words, it means acquiring the critical capacity to interpret well what has been and to make good use of what is available today.
Moving between economics, behavioural science and psychology – and drawing on the reflections of Nobel laureates such as Esther Duflo and Amartya Sen, as well as the studies of Paul Romer and Erik Angner – this seven-chapter book leads the reader to appreciate the economics that teaches us to be optimistic. The main features of this idea and its history are first outlined and then some themes are examined: happiness, risk, social relationships, health, cooperation, the fight against poverty, hope. The features of each concept are outlined and examples are given. This is not, it must be emphasised, a hymn to ignoring the problems that exist, but a “handbook” that teaches us to take risks, to innovate, to embrace uncertainty and to face the unexpected. All this while remaining alert to the dangers of overconfidence and of closing our eyes to problems until they overwhelm us. In other words, it is an economy of prudent optimism that Canova describes.
Luciano Canova’s book offers a new perspective that does not diminish the great problems of our time, first and foremost climate change, but makes it clear that only by recognising them and projecting ourselves beyond them in a positive way will we be able to find creative and truly effective solutions.
The conclusion is beautifully summed up in the quote from a poem by Dylan Thomas – Do Not Go Gentle into That Good Night – which in its meaning recalls the final lines of Bertolt Brecht’s “Life of Galileo” about the “night” always being “clear”.
Economia dell’ottimismo. Perché la speranza evita il fallimento delle nazioni
Luciano Canova
Saggiatore, 2025
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A book has just been published that discusses economics based on trust
Have faith despite everything. To believe, in other words, that in the end the night will not triumph over the light. Even in everyday life, in the economy and in social relations. It is a question of optimism. That doesn’t mean not seeing the problems, but looking beyond them to find the best solution. So, the economics of optimism. This is the title of a recently published book by Luciano Canova (a professor of behavioural economics), which discusses economic relationships from an unusual point of view.
“Economia dell’ottimismo. Perché la speranza evita il fallimento delle nazioni” (Economics of optimism. Why hope prevents the failure of nations) is a remarkable exercise in interpreting the cardinal principles of economics, but also of human history and behaviour, from a different perspective than usual. Canova begins by taking the following into consideration: the economics of optimism shows us how a confident vision of tomorrow has been crucial in the history of economic thought, and how it can still be for us and our planet.
The author begins with an observation: looking at the world today, with all its inequalities and crises, it’s hard to argue that there hasn’t been progress, even compared to half a century ago. Some data are indisputable, such as the staggering drop in infant mortality, the steady rise in literacy, the global decline in poverty. Objective data that go hand in hand with a fundamental idea: it is necessary to combat both nostalgic thinking, which leads to the idealisation of the past, and apocalyptic thinking, which paints the future in dark colours. In other words, it means acquiring the critical capacity to interpret well what has been and to make good use of what is available today.
Moving between economics, behavioural science and psychology – and drawing on the reflections of Nobel laureates such as Esther Duflo and Amartya Sen, as well as the studies of Paul Romer and Erik Angner – this seven-chapter book leads the reader to appreciate the economics that teaches us to be optimistic. The main features of this idea and its history are first outlined and then some themes are examined: happiness, risk, social relationships, health, cooperation, the fight against poverty, hope. The features of each concept are outlined and examples are given. This is not, it must be emphasised, a hymn to ignoring the problems that exist, but a “handbook” that teaches us to take risks, to innovate, to embrace uncertainty and to face the unexpected. All this while remaining alert to the dangers of overconfidence and of closing our eyes to problems until they overwhelm us. In other words, it is an economy of prudent optimism that Canova describes.
Luciano Canova’s book offers a new perspective that does not diminish the great problems of our time, first and foremost climate change, but makes it clear that only by recognising them and projecting ourselves beyond them in a positive way will we be able to find creative and truly effective solutions.
The conclusion is beautifully summed up in the quote from a poem by Dylan Thomas – Do Not Go Gentle into That Good Night – which in its meaning recalls the final lines of Bertolt Brecht’s “Life of Galileo” about the “night” always being “clear”.
Economia dell’ottimismo. Perché la speranza evita il fallimento delle nazioni
Luciano Canova
Saggiatore, 2025